2021 NBA Draft Big Board, 1.0: Sam Vecenie's top 100 prospects (2024)

We’re about to enter March, which means it’s time to put forth our first Big Board of the 2021 NBA Draft season. It’s a top-100 player ranking that comes largely from me but also with some input from college coaches, NBA executives and plenty of other sources around the basketball community. But before we do so, let’s jump into the conversation regarding the strength of this draft.

Is this draft as strong as everyone thought entering this season?

It depends on what you’re looking for. If you’re a fan of a team that projects to have a top-five pick, you should be extremelyexcited. I wrote in the preseason within the first mock draft that five players were tracking better than any prospect in the 2020 iteration. That remains true to an extent. Indeed, I would take five players over Anthony Edwards at No. 1 in last year’s class. But two of those players, to me, would be in a similar boat as LaMelo Ball, who was my No. 1 overall player. This class is extremely top-heavy, with Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jonathan Kuminga, Jalen Green and Jalen Suggs making up an elite top tier of talent every team should be legitimately excited about. I’ll do something deeper on this at a later date, but in the eyes of many evaluators with whom I’ve spoken, this top five stacks up favorably against any top five of the last decade.

Now, if you have a mid-tier lottery pick or later selections, I think the jury remains out. Right now, I wouldn’t say this class is tracking particularly weakly in that regard, but there is more uncertainty than ever. Teams, coaches and agents all have very different takes about what the next tier looks like. Almost all have Ziaire Williams in there somewhere, but some have him as high as No. 6 whereas others have him as low as the end of the lottery. Some really buy into Scottie Barnes’ mix of defensive ability and passing; others wonder how he’ll ever be able to score at the next level. Some buy into the high floor of Corey Kispert, whereas others see him as just a third-wing shooter. The same can be said of players such as Jalen Johnson, Keon Johnson, Jaden Springer and plenty of others.

There is very little certainty on the middle tier of this class. In part, that’s because …

NBA teams are ‘behind’ in their scouting process

This isn’t necessarily a blanket statement. There are good teams out there, and there are great evaluators who are on top of their sh*t at all times. Having said that, the consensus right now from the agency community is that NBA teams are “behind” where they typically would be at this point in the college basketball season in terms of pacing. Why believe agents about this stuff? Because they need relationships within the NBA scouting community to tell them which players are worth pursuing as potential clients. The obvious, no-doubter prospects will always be pursued, and the guys who are going to unquestionably declare will still be recruited. But some real question marks are arising from agents regarding how to advise some of the guys below the lottery or so mark on this board on what their plans should be after the season (and if you think many of these players and those around them aren’t having these discussions now, you’re painfully naive about how this process works).

Why would teams be “behind?” For a few reasons, it’s understandable due to COVID-19. First, the calendar is a bit later this season across the board. NBA teams started later, and because teams are only about 30 games into their seasons, there is some uncertainty about which is a lottery team and which isn’t (for reference, teams typically are about 55 to 60 games into a season by late February). Target ranges are wide right now. Also, higher-level NBA executives typically have shifted a bit of their focus at this point toward the draft. Most of the time, the trade deadline ends up being something of a switching point after which more time and energy goes into the draft. Last year, the deadline was Feb. 6, which gave evaluators more than a month to get eyes on players even before the COVID-19 stoppage. Most of the time, they get a couple of months for the players who make the postseason. This year, though, the trade deadline is March 25, and that switchover hasn’t happened yet.

Second, the draft is later, which reduces the urgency for watching tape now. If the draft happens in mid-August, that gives teams an extra two months to figure out what they need.

Third, the college hoops season is as disrupted as any in a long time. COVID-19 stoppages have led to weird, messy schedules where not every player has been seen as often as scouts would like to see them. For instance, Michigan has played 18 games thus far. By this point last year, it had played 28 games.

Finally, there has definitely been an adjustment to how scouts have had to operate. A lot of evaluators are used to going out on the road, meeting with their friends and sources after the games and getting a great feel for what’s going on behind the scenes. Now, they’re one step removed because they’re not traveling. Everything has to be done over the phone with largely pre-existing relationships or else you’re likely not getting the type of intel you need that can be trusted. Everything is done right now on tape. Scouts love to get a feel for how a player conducts and approaches his pregame. Is he serious? Is he messing around too much? Is there professionalism? All of this stuff plays a role in how players are evaluated when scouts go back to their executives and tell them what they saw (or when they write up reports). They don’t feel like they have as much info this year.

Will that be rectified? Maybe. It depends on how the pre-draft process looks, something sources are still a bit unclear on.

How does this affect the players?

At the end of the day, players need to put their head down and just play as well as they can, then let the rest sort itself out. Having said that, I have some worries about players getting some bad advice this year more than the typical year, if only because that lack of information is real. NBA teams are all over the map on a lot of different players.

One team might have a late first-round grade on someone like Tre Mann, whereas another has a late-second and says he should go back to school. Miles McBride is another player who is all over the map for NBA teams. Plenty of them love his toughness and think he will keep improving as a real shot maker. But others just see him as a run-of-the-mill backup point guard who is more of a two-way guy.

The same goes for David Duke at Providence. Some teams love his size and toughness at the guard position and have gotten raves about his character. I’ve heard some late first-round grades for him. But others don’t love his mix of robotic 3-point shot mechanics and inability to finish inside. Those evaluators have two-way grades on him. Getting good information is critical to their careers moving forward, and teams are so split at the moment that it’s tough to know what they should do.

The good news is something that is coming from the NCAA for once. Since all players can return to school this year, including seniors, it gives them more options than ever to make their final choice. Players who want to stay in school can do so. That will help a lot of seniors who are in tougher spots than normal.

Still, this is going to be as wild a pre-draft process as I can remember. One final thing worth noting: Because of the schedule noted above for NBA teams, there is a thought that the NCAA Tournament and conference tournaments could end up being a bigger factor than normal in the minds of NBA personnel. If those are the games they see and those are the first impressions high-end executives get, those games will end up playing a weird, disparate role in the process, even more than they typically do, so players who make the tournament may end up at a real advantage.

Enough ado about the process. Here is the board. Last year by this point, every player whom I had ranked in my top 21 went in the first round, and all the players in my top 34 got drafted, so there was a good deal of certainty. This year, I would not predict those results, as I’m like many of the evaluators around the NBA: still trying to nail down where I have certain players in the context of one another.

Here’s where I am right now, though, as we head into March Madness:

How I shape my draft board

This board does not take team fit into account. Boston’s board will look different than Phoenix’s. Portland likes to play drop pick-and-roll coverage under Terry Stotts, which puts slow-footed bigs into play for the Blazers more than it would Golden State, which likes to switch more actions. What this board tries to do is take the general direction of the NBA and slot in players who I think will play a role at the next level in the largest variety of situations. In that vein, with the way the NBA is going, wings tend to end up marginally higher on my board than bigs, as every team needs more perimeter players who are multi-positional defenders.

Second, as mentioned above, I get input and information from NBA executives, college coaches and other evaluators during the process. It’s critical to have conversations with folks around the basketball community to get a well-rounded picture of a player’s future. Sometimes it’s about his background and off-court habits. Sometimes it’s about his work ethic. Other times, it’s just a conversation about whether we think a guy can play. But at the end of the day, this is my ranking, and while it is reflective of the general tenor of NBA teams, it’s not necessarily what the consensus would be.

Additionally, I included an 18-person watch list at the bottom of the top 100. Why? Honestly, this draft does not have a crazy amount of depth as we get into the range of the 70s. A lot of the players on this watch list are very young, and I don’t think they should consider leaving school right now if the goal is to leave at the peak of their draft stock and to develop for the best of their careers.

For instance, JT Thor, in my view, has a shot to be a first-round pick in 2022. He’s incredibly athletic, has the potential to shoot well and offers versatility on defense. But he’s enough of a project and has variability in terms of outcome long term to where I don’t think you can take him in the first round at the moment. He’s absolutely one of the top-100 prospects in college basketball, but I don’t feel particularly good about putting him on one of these boards yet. The same can be said of the incredibly raw Efe Abogidi at Washington State. He has tremendous tools but is still learning the intricacies of where he needs to be on defense.

Marquette’s Dawson Garcia has some real offensive skill as a ballhandler and shooter, but he’s awful defensively right now. He needs to get stronger and prove himself there. These players should all go back to school and keep improving their games.

Related Reading

• John Hollinger: My undervalue draft prospects for 2021
• More draft coverage: Five-team mock, scouting G League Ignite and more

(Cade Cunningham: Mitch Alcala / Associated Press; Evan Mobley: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; Illustration by The Athletic’s Wes McCabe)

Sam Vecenie covers the NBA Draft, college basketball and the NBA for The Athletic. His podcast, the Game Theory Podcast, is regularly ranked among the top podcasts on iTunes. Previously, he worked for CBS Sports, SB Nation, Sporting News, and Vice. Follow Sam on Twitter @Sam_Vecenie